LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton · MC · Euronext Paris
My estimate (a forecast, not a fact)
EUR 474.48 / share
Market price, 24 Aug 2026
EUR 459.35
Difference
+3.3%
LVMH sells highly exclusive things, organised into 5 business segments. Louis Vuitton and Dior in Fashion and Leather Goods. Moët and Hennessy in Wines and Spirits. Then Perfumes and Cosmetics, Tiffany and Bulgari in Watches and Jewelry, and Sephora in Selective Retailing.
They are nowhere near equal. Fashion and Leather Goods is 46% of revenue and 73% of the profit, at a 34.7% margin. Buying LVMH is mostly buying Louis Vuitton and Dior, with the rest attached.
The Arnault family holds 50.21% of the capital and 66.39% of the votes. Bernard Arnault is Chairman and Chief Executive.
A currency problem
On the face of it, a broken luxury business — revenue flat for 4 years, profit down 24% from the 2023 peak.
Then look at the first half of this year. Reported revenue down 3%; organic revenue up 2%, with the second quarter at 3%. Currency cost 5 points.
The profit line is starker. Profit from recurring operations fell 4%. Underneath, organic profit was up €341 million and exchange rates took away €686 million. Strip the currency and operating profit grew 3.8%.
75% of what LVMH sells is invoiced in something other than the currency it reports in. The business grew and the euro took the growth away.
| Revenue | Profit from recurring operations | |
|---|---|---|
| First half 2025 | €39,810m | €9,012m |
| First half 2026 | €38,644m | €8,691m |
| Change as published | −3% | −4% |
| of which organic | +2% | +341m |
| of which changes in scope | −1% | +25m |
| of which exchange rates | −5% | −686m |
Revenues and margins
The last 12 months to June 2026, revenues were €79.6 billion at a 21.9% operating margin.
Against €86.2 billion at a 26.5% margin at the 2023 peak, and €53.7 billion at 21.4% in 2019.
| Revenue | Profit from recurring operations | Operating margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 53,670 | 11,504 | 21.4% |
| 2021 | 64,215 | 17,151 | 26.7% |
| 2023 | 86,153 | 22,802 | 26.5% |
| 2025 | 80,807 | 17,755 | 22.0% |
| LTM Jun-26 | 79,641 | 17,434 | 21.9% |
The drivers behind the estimate
Three assumptions produce my estimate.
| Driver | My estimate |
|---|---|
| Revenue growth, years 2–5 | 4.5% |
| Target operating margin | 24.0% |
| Return on capital, in perpetuity | 10.0% |
Revenue growth of 4.5%. The last 4 years delivered 0.14%, and that was macroeconomics — inflation, war, a Chinese consumer who stopped, a strong euro — not the brands.
A target operating margin of 24%. LVMH held above 26% for 3 straight years, so this sits below its record and above today's 21.9%.
And a return on capital of 10% in perpetuity. That's the one that matters. LVMH earns 13.2% today, 16.5% stripping out goodwill from acquisitions made decades ago. The standard assumption is that excess returns fade to 0, and across 48,000 listed companies that's right — the average firm earns less than its cost of capital. But every industry LVMH operates in earns 8 to 15 points above it. I've credited LVMH with 3 extra points of excess return, against a cost of capital of 7.20%.
The valuation
Revenue starts at €79.6 billion and reaches €110.7 billion by year 10, on the growth and the margin I've just given you. Tax drifts from 30% to the French marginal rate of 25.83%, with no loss carryforwards. Reinvestment comes off a sales-to-capital ratio of 1.3, then 1.5.
After year 10, growth settles at 3.25%. That gives a terminal value worth €174.7 billion in today's money — 66% of the total. No probability of failure. Add the €88.6 billion from the first 10 years, take off debt and minority interests, add back cash and non-operating assets, and divide by 493.1 million shares.
| € millions | |
|---|---|
| PV of cash flows, years 1–10 | 88,611 |
| PV of terminal value | 174,724 |
| Value of operating assets | 263,335 |
| − Debt | (36,746) |
| − Minority interests | (8,015) |
| + Cash | 12,202 |
| + Non-operating assets | 3,192 |
| Value of equity | 233,968 |
| ÷ Shares outstanding (m) | 493.1 |
| Value per share | €474.48 |
I estimate LVMH's value at €474.48 a share. As of 24 August 2026 it trades at €459.35. So, close to fairly valued — a gap of a bit over 3%.
This is a business whose balance sheet understates it, whose acquisition habit stopped 4 years ago, and whose worst 4 years were mostly a currency and a Chinese consumer rather than anything wrong with Louis Vuitton. At a materially lower price I'd find that a straightforward decision and I'd be a buyer.
The table below is the whole argument in one place: what the estimate becomes across how big LVMH gets by year 10, and how profitable it ends up. Two things to know before you read it. The rows grow revenue at a constant compound rate from today's €79.6 billion to the year-10 figure, rather than the −3%-then-4.5% path the headline number uses. And the columns step 20%, 25%, 30% — my own 24% target isn't one of them, so the outlined cell is the 25% column, 1 point above what I actually estimated. Between the two, that cell reads €507 rather than the €474.48 above.
The full version walks through all of it — the base year, the balance sheet, why the acquiring-brands-to-grow story doesn't hold, and why LVMH is one of a kind and earns its excess returns in perpetuity.
| Files Subscribe to download |
|---|
| Valuation model The FCFF model behind the estimate — every input, every year, and the value it produces. XLSX · 23 KB |
| Sensitivity table Value per share across the two assumptions — revenues and target operating margin. XLSX · 49 KB |
| Market sizes The market-size estimates behind the growth check — every source, every caveat, and the date each was last refreshed. XLSX · 33 KB |
| Reported financials LVMH's income statement, balance sheet and cash flow as reported under IFRS, FY2016 to the 12 months ended 30 June 2026, with revenue split by region and by business group. XLSX · 37 KB |
Sensitivity
Estimated value per share in EUR, across the two assumptions that move it most. Rows are revenue in year 10 (€bn); columns are target pre-tax operating margin (%). Shaded cells clear the EUR 459.35 price at publication.
My own case is highlighted — EUR 507. Every row here grows revenue at a single constant rate to its year-ten figure, so it does not land exactly on my EUR 474.48 estimate.
| Revenue in year 10 (€bn) | Target pre-tax operating margin (%) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 40 | 50 | |
| 77.5 | 69 | 149 | 230 | 310 | 390 | 470 | 631 | 792 |
| 94.1 | 69 | 164 | 259 | 354 | 449 | 544 | 734 | 924 |
| 110.7 | 69 | 179 | 288 | 398 | 507 | 617 | 836 | 1,055 |
| 127.4 | 69 | 193 | 317 | 441 | 565 | 689 | 937 | 1,185 |
| 144 | 68 | 206 | 345 | 483 | 621 | 760 | 1,036 | 1,313 |
| 177.2 | 67 | 233 | 400 | 567 | 733 | 900 | 1,233 | 1,566 |
| 215.9 | 64 | 264 | 463 | 662 | 862 | 1,061 | 1,460 | 1,859 |
Disclosure
- Position
- As at 24 August 2026, I do not own shares in LVMH. This covers shares held by people closely associated with me. It is a snapshot: if it changes, it changes in a new valuation, never by editing this one. I hold no position, long or short, exceeding 0.5% of LVMH's issued share capital.
- Author
- Lucian Mesaroș, independent equity analyst, sole author of this publication, publishing in a personal capacity as an individual. I am not authorised or supervised by the ASF or by any other financial supervisory authority, I am not an investment firm, and I do not provide investment advice.
- Valuation date
- 24 August 2026. First published 27 August 2026.
- Market price used.
- EUR 459.35 — Euronext Paris closing price on Euronext Paris, 24 August 2026. The percentage difference on this page compares my estimate to that price on that date, and is not updated afterwards.
- What the number is
- EUR 474.48/share is my estimate of intrinsic value, produced by a discounted cash flow (FCFF) model. It is a forecast and an opinion, not a fact, not a price target I undertake to defend, and not a prediction of where the share price will go. A discounted cash flow valuation of the firm (FCFF), built on 10 years of explicit forecasts and a terminal value, discounted at a cost of capital built from its components. The base year is the 12 months to 30 June 2026; the equity risk premium is weighted by where LVMH earns its revenue rather than where it is listed, and the cost of debt comes from its actual credit rating rather than a synthetic one. The full framework is at Methodology.
- Key assumptions
- Revenue falls 3% in year 1 on the currency drag, then grows 4.5% a year to year 5, fading to 3.25% by year 10 · operating margin 21.9% in the base year and 22% in year 1, recovering to a 24% target by year 5 · sales-to-capital 1.3 in years 1–5 and 1.5 thereafter · tax rate 30% for 5 years, drifting to the French marginal rate of 25.83% by year 10 · cost of capital 7.096% fading to 7.20% · return on capital in perpetuity 10%, about 3 points above the terminal cost of capital · terminal growth 3.25% · no probability of failure
- How wrong this can be
- Valuations are sensitive to assumptions I chose — the sensitivity table above shows what the estimate becomes when the two that matter most turn out differently. A small change moves the estimate materially. I can be, and have been, wrong.
- Time horizon
- At least 1 year, and normally far longer. I have no view on what the share price does over the coming weeks or months, and nothing here is a short-term call. Separately, this document stands until I next value LVMH — see What I've Published.
- Updates
- I revalue a company when it publishes annual results, or when something material changes. There is no guaranteed schedule, and no undertaking to update this page.
- Conflicts of interest
- I have no agreement of any kind with LVMH or with anyone connected to it, I have not been paid by anyone to produce this valuation, no one asked me to write it except through the public request page, no draft was shown to the company, and I am not a market maker, liquidity provider or adviser to it.
- Previous valuations of LVMH
- None in the last 12 months.
- Sources
- LVMH 2025 Consolidated Financial Statements · 2026 Interim Financial Report to 30 June 2026 · 2026 First Half Results press release · Damodaran global industry averages across 48,156 listed companies · Euronext Paris closing price All figures are as reported by the company unless I say otherwise.
- Everything I have published in the last 12 months:
- What I've Published